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Event Chair Addresses, Featured Addresses & Keynote Presentations

Peter de Jager's
Top 10 Year 2000 Predictions

1. Oh No!

Panic will set in with corporations who are only now waking up and understanding that this is big ...this will last until about July of '97 and then die down as people come to realize that if they select the applications they MUST convert, and ignore the rest, then they can make it in time. In other words ... an established methodology/strategy for coping with this problem will emerge very quickly.

2. Help Is On The Way!

A horde of computer industries will spring up offering assistance in this area. Many of them will have NO experience in this type of project ... Companies who choose the wrong consultant will be severely impacted by their choice.

3. Help Wanted!

Many corporate projects will fail because their 'talent' will be hired away. There will be a huge shortage of project leaders—this expertise will be prone to raiding. Retired computer folks will be called back to the office. Programmers for the government will flock to the private sector to take advantage of significantly higher salaries.

4. What's Hot . . . What's Not?

Packaged software sales will soar while others will crash. Companies offering packaged software will see a surge of sales in late 1997, 1998 and this business will explode in 1999! There will be a huge increase in computer sales for testing purposes. The resale value of this equipment will be practically zero.

5. Closed 'til 2000 . .

Several software companies will close their doors in late 1998 and then re-open under another name to avoid having to upgrade existing software. At the very least 1% of American businesses will be forced out of business by this issue.

6. You Can Run, But You Can't Hide!

There will be a huge media flurry on this topic. Dozens of books will hit the shelves and computer magazines... possibly even business magazines (like the WSJ) will run regular Year 2000 update columns to keep readers informed. Unless the media take very strong active steps to calm the populace in late 1998 and all of 1999 there will be 'runs' on financial institutions worldwide.

7. Tick...Tick...Tick...

Government conversion projects will grind to a halt...until the government reacts in some fashion (I'm not willing to predict how they will respond at this time...There have been rumors of a draft to recruit programmers.) An aside...The USA will be on a flat tax by 1999...Why? The program is easier to write than converting the old one.

8. Before They Call Your Lawyer...

Lawsuits relating to the Y2K problem will escalate by about 100% per annum from now until 1999 when they will at least quadruple -- and in 2000 they will increase by a factor of 20-30%!

9. Surprise!

Computer viruses (not related to the Y2K problem in ANY way) will be set to go off in the Year 2000 ... further complicating the whole problem.

10. Look Before You Leap.

The confusion about whether or not the Year 2000 is or is not a Leap year will continue until at least March 1st 2000.

Chairmen's Addresses

Tuesday, 9:00 a.m - 10:50 a.m.
* This session sponsored by Data Dimensions

The Year 2000: The Project That Cannot Be Late

Peter de Jager
Speaker and Consultant
de Jager & Company Limited

As we mobilize the IT community towards the task of fixing the Year 2000 problem, we will move towards completion in less than an orderly fashion. This session will kick off the conference by providing a global overview of how we are preparing both the Private and Public sectors. The objective will be to focus on what still needs attention, in particular, how we are handling and communicating honestly the risks involved in "The Project That Cannot Be Late."


Tuesday, 11:00 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.

Too Late for the Year 2000: What Do We Do Now?

Ken Orr
President
The Ken Orr Institute

By the time all the bills are in, solving the "Year 2000 Problem" will be the largest, most expensive project that the IT industry has ever taken on. What started as a way to save a few bytes in the 50s and 60s has turned into a maintenance nightmare in the 90s. With less than three years to go, the IT industry is attempting to understand how to help technology-dependent organizations throughout the world make it into the 21st Century. Current estimates are that solving the Year 2000 problem will cost anywhere from $200 billion to $1.5 trillion dollars! Most experts believe that it is already too late for most organizations to save all of their computer applications. What has been a case of management denial is rapidly turning into management panic. This presentation discusses the scope and implications of the Year 2000 problem and which organizations (industries) will be most affected.



Keynotes

Los Angeles

Wednesday, 9:00 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

Embedded Systems and the Year 2000: Just the Tip Of the Iceberg?

Steven Bender
Chief Software Engineer
Sycon Instruments

Although much is being made of the Millennium Bomb, with regard to information systems within the data processing realm, by sheer numbers they are dwarfed by the population of the so called 'embedded processors'. Technically, these platforms differ very little from their higher powered mainframe cousins, however, market pressures have resulted in a whole new category of computerized appliances, with 'firmware' replacing software as the mode of delivery. This presentation focuses on the subtle differences, both beneficial and potentially disastrous, that this unique technology brings to the Y2K table. Steven Bender shares his twenty years of embedded systems engineering experience, examining the state of embedded computer systems, and the impact they will have come January 1, 2000.

Thursday, 9:00 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

Testing Year 2000: How Close Is Close Enough?

Rich Evans
Vice President, Data Center Strategies
Meta Group

Even some of the world's most sophisticated users grossly underestimate the scale and complexity of the critical final testing stage and are now finding that it represents half to two-thirds of the entire Y2K project budget. Full-scale integration testing of all enterprise applications and data flows (including external partners, suppliers, distributors, and customers) will be the mitigating factor for successful compliance. Software and application interdependencies must be validated, and performance must be assured against existing service-level agreements. This presentation covers best-of-breed Y2K testing methodologies and specific tools, "tricks of the trade" from some of the world's most advanced Y2K projects, and other key topics, including:





Orlando

Wednesday, 9:00 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

The Year 2000 Crisis: Solving the Problem in a Global Distributed Company

Lou Marcoccio
Year 2000 Program Manager, Information Services
Digital Equipment Corporation

Digital Equipment Corporation is a highly distributed global company, doing business in 105 countries and 600 sites worldwide. The corporation has more than 2000 applications, 100,000 nodes, 70,000 telephones, and several new leading-edge business solutions and distributed email services, with internal platforms using OpenVMS, UNIX, and Windows. This presentation focuses on Digital's Information Services (IT) internal efforts — methodologies, tools, and structure — to resolve the Year 2000 problems with their internal systems and for external customers. Mr. Marcoccio also provides an overview of Digital's Enterprise efforts and how they are making certain their products are problem free.

Wednesday, 9:00 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

Are You Managing the Year 2000 Project Using the "Eyes Closed" Management Approach?

Irene Dec
Vice President Corporate Information Technology
Prudential

The Year 2000 represents the largest and most costly project ever undertaken by the Information Technology Industry. To bring your organization to Year 2000 compliance and the ability to do business beyond Year 2000, you must implement the "state of art" project management strategies and concepts. "Ad-hoc" management approaches increase time and cost. The Year 2000 is a business problem which requires a technology solution. Implementing strategic "smart" concepts in your organization will position you to introduce: risk reduction, efficient expense monitoring, and concepts that offer your organization with "opportunities beyond the Year 2000". These strategies focus on the approaches and concepts that Prudential has implemented.


Thursday, 9:00 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

Getting the Maximum Return on Your Year 2000 Investment

Sue Kozik
Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company

Changes to code or data may be less than 30% of the overall project versus the 45-60% spent on planning and testing. Tools can reduce the cost and increase the productivity, but the planning, management and testing is critical to meeting the non-negotiable deadlines. Sue Kozik demonstrates how you can deliver maximum return on your company's Year 2000 investment by introducing processes that are reusable and support increased productivity and software reliability for your legacy systems well beyond the millennium.



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